First Mover: Why Bitcoin Could Be Stuck in This Range for a While

PLUS: After volatile shakeout in bitcoin, charts show resistance at $36K

Everything you need to make sense of the crypto markets and beyond By the CoinDesk Markets Team Edited by Lawrence Lewitinn, Managing Editor, Global Capital Markets June 23, 2021 Sponsored by     Bitcoin (BTC) +7.7%  $34,240 Ether (ETH)  +5.8%  $2,010 (Price data as of June 23 @11:00 UTC) If you were forwarded this newsletter and would like to receive it, sign up here.  Good morning. Here's what we're writing about: Market Moves: Bitcoin Likely to Be Range-Bound After Rebound From $29K Technician's Take: Bitcoin Holds $30K Support After Volatile Shakeout; Resistance at $36K Check out the CoinDesk TV show "First Mover," hosted by Christine Lee, Lawrence Lewitinn and Emily Parker at 9:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern time. Today the show will feature guests: Jeremy Allaire, Circle & USD Coin CEO Steve H. Hanke, CATO Institute Troubled Currencies Project Director Alex Salnikov, Rarible CEO Biggest Movers These are the biggest movers in the CoinDesk 20 over the past 24 hours:   Gainers: Uniswap (UNI): +15.5% The Graph (GRT): +14.6% Stellar (XLM): +14.2% Tezos (XTZ): 14.1% Aave (AAVE): +13.6% Filecoin (FIL): +12.6% Losers: None of the CoinDesk 20 digital assets is down today.    The CoinDesk 20 are 20 digital assets filtered from the larger universe of thousands of cryptocurrencies and constitute roughly 99% of the market by volume at eight of the largest and most trustworthy exchanges. Market Moves by Omkar Godbole Bitcoin Likely to Be Range-Bound After Rebound From $29K While bitcoin (BTC) seems to have found a bottom, a quick rally to record highs looks unlikely, analysts told CoinDesk on Wednesday, saying the cryptocurrency now faces price consolidation.   "Bitcoin looks to have bottomed out, having digested most negative news during the recent sell-off from $41,000 to $29,000," trader and analyst Alex Kruger said.   Bearish sentiment strengthened on Monday after the People's Bank of China reiterated its crypto banking ban in the wake of the Chinese government's crackdown on crypto mining. Bitcoin extended the previous week's sell-off, hitting five-month lows near $29,000 during early U.S. hours Tuesday.   Still, prices had bounced back to $32,000 by the day's end (UTC, 23:59). At press time, the cryptocurrency is changing hands near $33,730, a 3.9% gain on the day, CoinDesk 20 data show.   With the quick recovery, bitcoin has re-entered the broad range of $30,000 to $40,000 established in the aftermath of the mid-May sell-off. Kruger expects consolidation to continue for some time unless "there is another major bearish China headline."   Bitcoin daily chart (Source: TradingView) Stack Funds is also maintaining a cautious stance despite signs of bargain hunting.   "We have noticed that whales [large investors] are re-entering the market as risk appetite returns," it said in a research noted published Wednesday. Short-squeeze hunters are also exiting the market, it said.   "We believe bitcoin is very close to the bottom, at least in this current wave," analysts noted. "[However,] we will keep a close eye on bitcoin's price post options expiry, and it will be interesting to see how this will unfold in the first week of July, the start of the third quarter."   Bitcoin options worth more than $2 billion are set to expire Friday. The monthly expiries have gained prominence this year as volatility-inducing events.   Focus on USD   According to Nick Mancini, a research analyst at Trade the Chain, a continued rally in bitcoin needs a weaker U.S. dollar.   "Bitcoin and the dollar index have developed an inverse relationship since the last week's Federal Reserve meeting," Mancini said. "We believe that if bitcoin wants to gain strength, given current market conditions, the dollar needs to become weaker. Bitcoin and dollar index charts (Source: TradingView) The dollar index, which tracks the greenback's value against major fiat currencies, has risen by 1.43% since the Fed meeting. Bitcoin, meantime, is down at least 10% from the pre-Fed highs.   Some observers say the Fed taper fears are here to stay and could keep bitcoin's gains under check. "Concerns about the outlook for Fed policy and the impact of a shift to less-accommodative policy on account of rising inflation that may not be transitory pose downside risk to bitcoin's price," Joel Kruger, currency strategist at LMAX Digital, said.   At a minimum, bitcoin needs to see a break above $41,325 to suggest we've bottomed," Kruger said. That was the level the currency reached June 15.   Read the original story here: Bitcoin Likely to Be Range-Bound After Rebound From $29K A message from Nexo Your digital assets deserve a savings account in their BEST INTEREST. Leading crypto lender Nexo treats you, your crypto and your fiat to industry-best Crypto & Fiat services, featuring:    * Up to 12% interest on digital assets, paid out daily! * Yields available on BTC, ETH, LTC, BCH, XRP, XLM, EOS, TRX, LINK, BNB, PAXG, USDT, USDC, TUSD, PAX, DAI, HUSD, GBP and EUR. * No minimum or maximum limits on funds deposited, offering infinite opportunities to earn. * #ZeroFees on all transactions. * Military-grade wallet security and top-tier insurance on all custodial assets with SOC 2 Type 2 certified crypto custodian BitGo. Get started at nexo.io Technician's Take by Damanick Dantes, CMT Bitcoin Holds $30K Support After Volatile Shakeout; Resistance at $36K Bitcoin (BTC) returned above the $30,000 level on Tuesday after a volatile trading session. Buyers quickly stepped in as oversold conditions appeared on intraday charts. The next level of resistance is seen around $36,000 which could limit further upside.   The world's largest cryptocurrency was trading around $34,000 at press time and is up 9% over the past 24-hours. Bitcoin four-hour chart shows support and resistance levels with RSI (Source: TradingView) The near 10% price drop on Tuesday was typical of a shakeout, which signals a period of market turmoil when sellers capitulate. Bitcoin's two-month downtrend appears exhausted after the relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart registered a higher low. This means buyers could remain active towards upper resistance levels. The RSI on the four-hour chart is not yet overbought, although bitcoin is still below the 100-period moving average, suggesting resistance could be found at $36,000. Stronger resistance is seen at $40,000 which is near the upper bound of a month-long range. Read the original story here: Bitcoin Holds $30K Support After Volatile Shakeout; Resistance at $36K A message from Kaiko   Kaiko is the premier cryptocurrency market data provider for professional traders and enterprises.  Highly-granular historical and live data: Tick-level trades, order book snapshots, aggregates, reference rates and more.  Extensive coverage: 100+ spot and derivatives exchanges Flexible data delivery: Downloadable CSV files and robust REST and WebSocket APIs designed for enterprise-use. On-call support: Private slack channels, SLA's and integration assistance.  Request a trial, browse our data dictionary, and subscribe to our weekly research newsletter today!    Learn More BOLO Be on the look out for some of these upcoming events:   12:30 UTC (8:30 a.m. ET): U.S. 2021 Q1 current account deficit (Est: $205 billion). The cryptocurrency movement has never been so sprawling, reaching every corner of the planet. Crypto State by CoinDesk aims to connect with local communities to explore this movement of financial disruption and how it trickles down to every corner of the globe, from DeFi investment opportunities to alternative ways to transact and store wealth. We're making virtual stops with audiences in Nigeria, the Middle East and Southeast Asia this year. Register for the Crypto State virtual tour. ICYMI In case you missed it, here are the most recent episodes of "First Mover" on CoinDesk TV:   Bitcoin, Ether Plummet as China Crypto Crackdown Continues, Ethereum Improvement Proposal Explained China ramps up the pressure on crypto, telling banks to stop facilitating transactions. Cryptocurrencies fell with bitcoin dropping below $30K Tuesday morning. "First Mover" dives into the crypto markets with the Amber Group's Michael Wu and Voyager Digital's Steve Ehrlich. Also, CoinDesk's Christine Kim breaks down her comprehensive report on the investment implications of Ethereum's improvement proposal. EIP 1559: Ethereum's Fee Market Upgrade Explained CoinDesk Research's newest report dives into the economic impacts and investment implications of Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 1559. At its core, the code change is designed to make transaction fees on Ethereum less volatile and more predictable.  At the same time, EIP 1559 also poses several risks to Ethereum including risks of miner capitulation or revolt, technological risk in the form of unexpected bugs, and risk of user disappointment. In this report, CoinDesk Research gives an overview of how EIP 1559 works and its intended impact for investors, miners and users. Download the full report today. Latest Headlines   Polkadot on Coinbase Went Up More Than 70% in the Midst of Crypto Market Sell-Off DOT was one of the day's biggest winners.   Goldman Sachs Taps JPMorgan's Private Blockchain for Repo Trade: Report "We firmly think this will change the nature of the intraday marketplace," said Mathew McDermott, head of digital assets for Goldman.   Investor Jill Carlson Joins Board of Bram Cohen's Chia Network The Open Money Initiative co-founder will help Chia expand increase strategic partnerships and adoption. ASIC Maker Canaan Diversifies Into Bitcoin Mining in Kazakhstan Canaan has begun deploying its latest Avalon Miner units. The firm will also be attempting to expand its business scope and customer base. Wirex Eyes Mainstream DeFi With Fireblocks Integration Now your mum can start providing liquidity to Uniswap, said Wirex CEO Pavel Matveev.   SEC Delays Decision on Valkyrie Bitcoin ETF The SEC designated Aug. 10 as the revised date when it will approve or disapprove Valkyrie's application.   South Korea Seizes $47M Worth of Crypto for Back Taxes: Report Officials called it the largest "cryptocurrency seizure for back taxes in Korean history." BIS Says CBDCs on Track to Renew the Institution of Money in Latest Research Report While not entirely new concepts, the discussion shows CBDCs, in the eyes of the bank for central banks, are still firmly on their radar.   We've launched on Snapchat. On our debut show, "CoinDesk Breaks It Down," we distill the noise around dogecoin, the energy debate and more. Follow for original content, twice weekly. Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.  ATTENTION: Scammers have been sending fraudulent emails with links to sites disguised to look like coindesk.com. If you are in doubt about a link, type https://www.coindesk.com directly into your browser; do not copy and paste. 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