3 Things to Watch for Before Calling a Bitcoin Bottom
  Everything you need to make sense of the crypto markets and beyond By the CoinDesk Markets Team Edited by Lawrence Lewitinn, Managing Editor, Global Capital Markets June 15, 2021 Sponsored by  (Price data as of June 15 @11:00 UTC) If you were forwarded this newsletter and would like to receive it, sign up here.
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Market Moves by Omkar Godbole  Three Things to Watch for Before Calling a Bitcoin Bottom
Macro and crypto-specific factors including the impending Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, bitcoin's dominance rate, and technical charts warrant caution on the part of the bulls.
1) Fed fears
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss policy. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference following the meeting at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
While the central bank is likely to keep key policy tools unchanged, some analysts are concerned the bank may strike a slightly less dovish tone in the wake of rising inflation.
Any hint of early taper or rate hike could trigger risk aversion in financial markets, killing the nascent bitcoin recovery. Alternatively, a strong-worded commitment to keep the tap open would bring cheer to bitcoin and asset prices in general.
2) Bitcoin dominance rate
A sustained uptick in bitcoin's dominance rate – the top cryptocurrency's share in the total market capitalization – is needed to confirm a trend reversal higher.
That's because the largest cryptocurrency by market value is usually the first to rally, followed by alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins). In other words, money enters the crypto world through bitcoin, as seen in October 2020, and moves to altcoins.
The dominance rate remains below 50% at press time, having peaked above 70% in early January, according to TradingView. According to analysts at JPMorgan, that bitcoin's share is still quite low is a bearish sign.  Bitcoin dominance rate (Source: TradingView) 3) Key resistance still intact
While bitcoin has charted an impressive relief rally to $40,000, it has yet to clear key price hurdles that could pave the way for bullish revival.
 Bitcoin: $41,000 hurdle still intact (Source: TradingView) Bitcoin briefly topped $41,000 on Monday before falling back to under $40,000, CoinDesk 20 data show.
Social media chatter suggests some in the investor community are focused on the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) hurdle, currently lined up at $42,604.
Per Pankaj Balani, CEO of Delta Exchange, the recent recovery from lows near $30,000 might be a short-term respite. "The bounce might extend to $45,000 levels, but upside looks limited here, and we expect to see more selling come through at those levels," Balani said in a WhatsApp chat.
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Technician's Take by Damanick Dantes, CMT Bitcoin Stalls at Resistance; Lower Support at $36K Bitcoin (BTC) approached resistance around $41,000 on Monday, which triggered some profit taking. The month-long range is still in effect as short-term overbought signals limit upside moves. Initial support is seen around $36,000 which could stabilize a brief pull-back.
Bitcoin was trading around $40,000 at press time and is up about 2% over the past 24-hours.  Bitcoin four-hour chart shows support and resistance levels with overbought RSI (Source: TradingView)
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