First Mover: Bitcoin Set for Worst Quarter Ever

PLUS: Bitcoin stalls at $36K

Everything you need to make sense of the crypto markets and beyond By the CoinDesk Markets Team Edited by Lawrence Lewitinn, Managing Editor, Global Capital Markets June 30, 2021 Sponsored by     Bitcoin (BTC) -2.5%  $34,763 Ether (ETH)  -1.9%  $2,134 (Price data as of June 30 @11:00 UTC) If you were forwarded this newsletter and would like to receive it, sign up here.  Good morning. Here's what we're writing about: Market Moves: Bitcoin Set for Record Second-Quarter Price Drop Technician's Take: Bitcoin Upside Stalls; Could Find Support Near $30K-$33K Check out the CoinDesk TV show "First Mover," hosted by Christine Lee, Lawrence Lewitinn and Emily Parker at 9:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern time. Today the show will feature guests: Jeremy Allaire, Circle & USD Coin CEO Chris Tyrer, Fidelity Head of Digital Assets Europe Janine Yorio, Republic Head of Real Estate Biggest Movers These are the biggest movers in the CoinDesk 20 over the past 24 hours:   Gainers: Filecoin (FIL): +1.7%   Losers: Aave (AAVE): -8.5% The Graph (GRT): -6.0% Bitcoin Cash (BCH): -5.7% Chainlink (LINK): -5.5%   The CoinDesk 20 are 20 digital assets filtered from the larger universe of thousands of cryptocurrencies and constitute roughly 99% of the market by volume at eight of the largest and most trustworthy exchanges. Market Moves by Omkar Godbole Bitcoin Set for Record Second-Quarter Price Drop Bitcoin prices were on track for a record second-quarter percentage decline, weighed down by China's crackdown, concern the Federal Reserve would start tapering its stimulus program and persistent demand for downside hedges.   The leading cryptocurrency was trading near $34,824 at 10:39 UTC on Wednesday, down almost 41% for the April to June period. The drop snaps a four-quarter winning streak that saw prices chart a sixfold rise to almost $60,000, according to Bitstamp data.   The historically strong quarter began on a positive note, with bitcoin (BTC) rallying to a record $64,801 in the runup to the Nasdaq debut of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase on April 14. However, momentum stalled in subsequent weeks as retail investors struggled to do the heavy lifting in the wake of whale selling.   The market, therefore, looked weak and took a beating in mid-May after the U.S. electric-car maker Tesla delisted bitcoin as a payments alternative, citing environmental concerns and dashing hopes for widespread corporate adoption. China's reiteration of the crypto-mining ban and concerns of an early unwinding of stimulus by the Fed amplified the bearish move, pushing prices down to a then four-month low of $30,000. Bitcoin second-quarter performance (Source: Bitstamp/Data wrapper) Since then, bitcoin has traded mainly in the range of $30,000 to $40,000, barring a brief drop to $28,600 on June 22. Sentiment has turned quite bearish, as evidenced by directionless trading in the wake of El Salvador's decision to adopt the cryptocurrency as a legal tender.   Moreover, fears of a deeper sell-off persist, according to the so-called options smile – a chart created by plotting implied volatilities against options at various strike prices expiring on the same date. Implied volatility refers to investors' expectations of price turbulence over a specific period. It is influenced by demand for call and put options.   Bitcoin options smile (Source: Genesis Volatility, @hodlandmotivate) The option smile for short-date and near-dated expiries carries a steep slope at strikes lower than bitcoin's current price. That's a sign of relatively higher implied volatility or demand for options at lower strikes than those at higher strikes. In other words, investors are continuing to buy protective puts – contracts that give purchaser the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset, in this case bitcoin, at a predetermined price on or before a specific date.   Currently, traditional markets are showing no signs of weakness. Despite the Fed's recent hawkish talk, the S&P 500, Wall Street's benchmark equity index, is on track to end the second quarter 8% higher, a fifth consecutive quarterly gain. Meanwhile, gold, a safe haven, has erased most of its gains to trade just 2% higher for the quarter, according to TradingView data.   The situation, however, could change if the U.S. economy continues to accelerate, reviving fears of an early Fed tightening.   That said, some observers remain optimistic and are drawing parallels with the price action seen in 2013 when bitcoin crashed from $250 to $45 in April, bringing the bull run to a screeching halt, only to surge to four figures by November.   Read the original story here: Bitcoin Set for Record Second-Quarter Price Drop A message from Nexo Your digital assets deserve a savings account in their BEST INTEREST. Leading crypto lender Nexo treats you, your crypto and your fiat to industry-best Crypto & Fiat services, featuring:    * Up to 12% interest on digital assets, paid out daily! * Yields available on BTC, ETH, LTC, BCH, XRP, XLM, EOS, TRX, LINK, BNB, PAXG, USDT, USDC, TUSD, PAX, DAI, HUSD, GBP and EUR. * No minimum or maximum limits on funds deposited, offering infinite opportunities to earn. * #ZeroFees on all transactions. * Military-grade wallet security and top-tier insurance on all custodial assets with SOC 2 Type 2 certified crypto custodian BitGo. Get started at nexo.io Technician's Take by Damanick Dantes, CMT Bitcoin Upside Stalls; Could Find Support Near $30K-$33K Bitcoin (BTC) stalled near $36,000 resistance during Asia hours and could face further downside towards the $30,000-$33,000 support zone. The cryptocurrency was trading around $34,000 at press time and is down about 2% over the past 24-hours. Bitcoin four-hour price chart shows short-term support and resistance levels with RSI (Source: TradingView) The relative strength index (RSI) reached overbought levels on the four-hour chart on Tuesday, which could keep sellers active over the short-term. Bitcoin was unable to sustain a series of higher price lows over the past few days. This means a period of consolidation could persist as selling pressure stabilizes from May. Initial support is seen at the 50-period moving average on the four-hour chart at $33,000. Although, buyers could find more attractive entry levels near $30,000 once oversold conditions appear on the chart. Read the original story here: Bitcoin Upside Stalls; Could Find Support Near $30K-$33K A message from Oasis Foundation   Get up to $50K to build your Oasis DApp Build a scalable, private DApp with Oasis, the leading privacy-first Blockchain, with built-in features to support confidential smart contracts. Check out the $1.5M USD Oasis Grants Program and get up to  $50K USD in ROSE token to build your project. APPLY NOW BOLO Be on the look out for some of these upcoming events:   14:00 UTC (10:00 a.m. ET):   Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations hearing: America on "FIRE": Will the Crypto Frenzy Lead to Financial Independence and Early Retirement or Financial Ruin? Click here for the live webcast of this hearing. Click here for the Committee Memorandum. Witness List Ms. Alexis Goldstein, Director of Financial Policy, Open Markets Institute Ms. Sarah Hammer, Managing Director, Stevens Center for Innovation in Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania Ms. Christine Parker, Partner, Reed Smith LLP Ms. Eva Su, Analyst in Financial Economics, Congressional Research Service Mr. Peter Van Valkenburgh, Director of Research, Coin Center The cryptocurrency movement has never been so sprawling, reaching every corner of the planet. Crypto State by CoinDesk aims to connect with local communities to explore this movement of financial disruption and how it trickles down to every corner of the globe, from DeFi investment opportunities to alternative ways to transact and store wealth. We're making virtual stops with audiences in Nigeria, the Middle East and Southeast Asia this year. Register for the Crypto State virtual tour. ICYMI In case you missed it, here are the most recent episodes of "First Mover" on CoinDesk TV:   Bitcoin Breaks $35K, ARK Invest Joins Race to Get Bitcoin ETF Approved, Global Exchanges Under Regulatory Pressure "First Mover" has the day's first look at crypto markets and business news, including regulatory concerns for global exchanges following a cluster of enforcement actions against Binance. Guests include Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek, Delta Exchange CEO Pankaj Balani, and Edge & Node Co-founder Tegan Kline. EIP 1559: Ethereum's Fee Market Upgrade Explained CoinDesk Research's newest report dives into the economic impacts and investment implications of Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 1559. At its core, the code change is designed to make transaction fees on Ethereum less volatile and more predictable.  At the same time, EIP 1559 also poses several risks to Ethereum including risks of miner capitulation or revolt, technological risk in the form of unexpected bugs, and risk of user disappointment. In this report, CoinDesk Research gives an overview of how EIP 1559 works and its intended impact for investors, miners and users. Download the full report today. Latest Headlines Security Tokens Are Back and This Time It's Real Billions in private assets could be securitized on a blockchain and sold to traders. So why haven't security tokens taken off yet? Cream Finance Announces Integration With Polygon Cream's users will be able to lend and borrow supported assets. Australia's Financial Watchdog Says Bitcoin ETP Could Create 'Risk', Seeks Feedback ASIC said it is attempting to evaluate whether cryptos are appropriate underlying assets for an exchange traded product. Democratic Congressman Bill Foster Says Crypto Backdoor is Key to Unmasking Bad Actors The congressman suggested allowing the court to use a "cryptographic backdoor" allowing it to reverse transactions on the blockchain. BNY Mellon Subsidiary Doubts Bitcoin as Payment Solution Contrasting Parent's Offerings Despite its parent company's recent foray into the industry, the subsidiary is calling for caution on investing in assets like bitcoin. Complaints Against Crypto Exchanges Rise in US as Coinbase Tops Most Received The complaints stretch from June 2020 through June 2021 and capture a time when the market was beginning to shake off bearish sentiment. HSBC Goes Live on UAE's KYC Blockchain Consortium Data shared over the platform's blockchain enables institutions to onboard clients using credentials provided to other members. Google to Limit UK Financial Ads to FCA Approved Companies As of Aug. 30, Google will require advertisers to demonstrate that they are authorised by the FCA or qualify for one of the limited exemptions. Bank of Russia Picks Banks to Pilot Digital Ruble: Report The regulator eyes the prototype of the CBDC in December and piloting its in 2022.   Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.  ATTENTION: Scammers have been sending fraudulent emails with links to sites disguised to look like coindesk.com. If you are in doubt about a link, type https://www.coindesk.com directly into your browser; do not copy and paste. Remember, if something seems too good to be true, it probably is. First Mover   A newsletter from CoinDesk Copyright © 2021 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.    250 Park Avenue South New York, NY 10003, USA You can manage your preferences here or unsubscribe from all CoinDesk email.