First Mover: Despite 'Death Cross,' Bitcoin HODLers Are Buying Again

PLUS: Why Bitcoin's "corrective phase" is not complete

Everything you need to make sense of the crypto markets and beyond By the CoinDesk Markets Team Edited by Lawrence Lewitinn, Managing Editor, Global Capital Markets June 17, 2021 Sponsored by     Bitcoin (BTC) -1.1%  $39,287 Ether (ETH)  -2.0%   $2,434 (Price data as of June 17 @11:00 UTC) If you were forwarded this newsletter and would like to receive it, sign up here.  Good morning. Here's what we're writing about: Market Moves: Bitcoin Holders Become Net Buyers for First Time Since October as Death Cross Looms Technician's Take: Bitcoin Holds Short-Term Support; Faces Resistance at $41K Check out the CoinDesk TV show "First Mover," hosted by Christine Lee, Lawrence Lewitinn and Emily Parker at 9:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern time. Today the show will feature guests: Bobby Ong, CoinGecko Co-Founder & COO Michele Schneider, MarketGauge Group Managing Director John Linden, Mythical Games CEO Biggest Movers These are the biggest movers in the CoinDesk 20 over the past 24 hours:   Gainers: Algorand (ALGO): +2.8% Chainlink (LINK): +1.1% Bitcoin Cash (BCH): +0.4% Losers: The Graph (GRT): -4.5% NuCypher (NU): -3.3%   The CoinDesk 20 are 20 digital assets filtered from the larger universe of thousands of cryptocurrencies and constitute roughly 99% of the market by volume at eight of the largest and most trustworthy exchanges. Market Moves by Omkar Godbole Bitcoin Holders Become Net Buyers for First Time Since October as Death Cross Looms Investors with a longer-term horizon look to be boosting their bitcoin (BTC) holdings amid calls for a more profound price drop.   Glassnode data show the bitcoin "hodler net position change", which tracks net buying/selling activity of those holding coins for six months or more, has flipped positive for the first time since late October. Hodl is crypto slang for hold.   "It shows HODLers are buyers here," Delphi Digital said in its daily market commentary dated June 16. "The net positions of BTC HODLers is a strong indicator of how longer-term investors are thinking about BTC."   Supply held by long-term holders has increased from 11 million to more than 11.6 million in the past few weeks, according to Glassnode. Bitcoin: hodler net position change (Source: Glassnode) While holders are now injecting bullish pressure into the market, that does not necessarily imply a sharp rally. Past data show bullish trends mostly pick up the pace after sustained accumulation by holders.   For example, the indicator remained positive for most of 2018, which was a negative year for bitcoin, and early 2019, when the cryptocurrency remained sidelined below $5,000. Bullish mood returned to the market in the second quarter of that year, pushing the cryptocurrency to $13,880 by the end of June. Bitcoin: hodler net position change (2018-2020) (Source: Glassnode) Bitcoin scaled that peak in October 2020 – after a gap of 16 months. During that period the cryptocurrency was mainly in a bearish trend, falling from $13,000 to $4,000 between August 2019 and March 2020. Holders were net buyers throughout and during the subsequent recovery, and began distributing coins in November.   It remains to be seen if they will continue to be net buyers over the coming weeks and restore the battered market confidence.   Some chart analysts though are worried that the cryptocurrency could see more selling in the short term, as the daily plot shows the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) are set to produce a death cross (bearish crossover) in the next day or two. Bitcoin impending death cross (Source: TradingView) According to Kraken's research, the previous instances of death crosses on the daily chart coincided with "either a sell-off in the days that followed or a continued macro downtrend that confirmed a bear market."   Macro funds, which bought bitcoin as a store of value, may sell if U.S. Treasury yields rise further. The U.S. two-year yield reached a 12-month high of 0.219% and the 10-year yield rose nearly 10 basis points to 1.59% on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled an earlier interest rate increase than some had anticipated.   Read the original story here: Bitcoin Holders Become Net Buyers for First Time Since October as Death Cross Looms A message from Nexo Your digital assets deserve a savings account in their BEST INTEREST. Leading crypto lender Nexo treats you, your crypto and your fiat to industry-best Crypto & Fiat services, featuring:    * Up to 12% interest on digital assets, paid out daily! * Yields available on BTC, ETH, LTC, BCH, XRP, XLM, EOS, TRX, LINK, BNB, PAXG, USDT, USDC, TUSD, PAX, DAI, HUSD, GBP and EUR. * No minimum or maximum limits on funds deposited, offering infinite opportunities to earn. * #ZeroFees on all transactions. * Military-grade wallet security and top-tier insurance on all custodial assets with SOC 2 Type 2 certified crypto custodian BitGo. Get started at nexo.io Technician's Take by Damanick Dantes, CMT Bitcoin Holds Short-Term Support; Faces Resistance at $41K Bitcoin (BTC) stabilized around $38,000 support on Wednesday, but upside appears limited towards $41,000. The choppy range over the past few days suggests indecision between buyers and sellers.   A breakout from the trading range would yield an upside target towards the next resistance level around $45,000. However, upside momentum has been weak, which means the corrective phase from May is not yet complete.   Bitcoin was trading around $39,200 at press time and is up 7% over the past seven days. Bitcoin four-hour price chart shows short-term support and resistance levels with RSI (Source: TradingView) The relative strength index (RSI) on the four-hour chart is neutral after signaling an overbought downturn on Monday. The short-term trend is improving as price remains above the 100-period moving average on the four-hour chart. Support around $37,000 and $34,000 could stabilize a potential pullback. However, there is strong resistance between $41,000 and $45,000. The weekly chart is not yet oversold, which suggests limited upside and an extended period of consolidation. Read the original story here: Bitcoin Holds Short-Term Support; Faces Resistance at $41K A message from Kaiko   Kaiko is the premier cryptocurrency market data provider for professional traders and enterprises.  Highly-granular historical and live data: Tick-level trades, order book snapshots, aggregates, reference rates and more.  Extensive coverage: 100+ spot and derivatives exchanges Flexible data delivery: Downloadable CSV files and robust REST and WebSocket APIs designed for enterprise-use. On-call support: Private slack channels, SLA's and integration assistance.  Request a trial, browse our data dictionary, and subscribe to our weekly research newsletter today!    Learn More BOLO Be on the look out for some of these upcoming events:   12:30 UTC (8:30 a.m. ET):  Initial jobless claims (week ending June 12). Est: 360,000. The cryptocurrency movement has never been so sprawling, reaching every corner of the planet. Crypto State by CoinDesk aims to connect with local communities to explore this movement of financial disruption and how it trickles down to every corner of the globe, from DeFi investment opportunities to alternative ways to transact and store wealth. We're making virtual stops with audiences in Nigeria, the Middle East and Southeast Asia this year. Register for the Crypto State virtual tour. ICYMI In case you missed it, here are the most recent episodes of "First Mover" on CoinDesk TV:   Crypto Markets Await Fed Rate Decision, Cyber Security in Focus, Bitwise CEO on Raise from Hedge Fund Giants As President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet in Geneva, "First Mover" discusses a top item on the U.S. agenda: the recent ransomware attacks traced to Russia. Also, how will the Federal Reserve respond to the jump in U.S. inflation? Markets are relatively quiet as they await the Fed's news. Joining the show to discuss these and other stories are Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, Darius Sit of QCP Capital and Ian Rogers of Ledger. Unlocked Encore! Now What Do I Do With $DESK?   During Consensus 2021, CoinDesk experimented with launching its own Ethereum-based rewards token $DESK, and the excitement to snag airdrops and acquire NFTs with it was unreal.   Running on the Rinkeby testnet, the token offers a way for people to play with the technology without the fear of losing their life savings or the inconvenience of high gas fees.   On Friday, June 18, Join Colin Platt, CEO of Unifty, the NFT infrastructure provider that built $DESK, and Bailey Reutzel, $DESK Piranha Mama herself, for this Unlocked interactive hour exploring all the things you can do with $DESK and your NFTs now that the conference is over.   Register free for Unlocked Encore! Now What Do I Do With $DESK? and stay tuned on $DESK's Telegram group for updates. Latest Headlines 2 Ethereum Projects Are Officially Merging; 'Keanu' Aims for August Launch Keep and NuCypher have agreed to merge their protocols into a DAO. Coming soon: a more capital-efficient version of Keep's bitcoin-on-Ethereum token, tBTC. Institutional Investors Have Arrived on Polygon Amid Rising Ethereum Layer-2 Demand: Blockchain Data Questions remain about promised scalability improvement from Ethereum 2.0. Polychain, Pantera Back $14M Raise for DeFi Derivatives Platform SynFutures Bybit, Wintermute, CMS, Kronos and IOSG Ventures also backed the round. World Bank Denies El Salvador's Request for Technical Assistance on Bitcoin The World Bank has shut down a request for help from El Salvador in implementing bitcoin as legal tender, citing environmental concerns. Republican House Campaign Arm to Accept Donations in Crypto The National Republican Congressional Committee says it will gather identifying information from all individuals who use crypto to donate. Goldman Sachs Flags Growth Potential but Also Obstacles in Silvergate Analysts' Note The investment bank is encouraged by Silvergate's network of customers but concerned about competition and regulatory uncertainty. Blockchain Privacy Firm Integritee Raises $2M Ahead of Kusama Parachain Auction The seed round was led by investment firm LD Capital, and included AU21, DFG, FBG and OKEx Blockdream Ventures. Iron Finance's Titan Token Falls to Near Zero in DeFi Panic Sell "What happened is just the worst thing that could possibly happen considering their tokenomics," said Iron Finance investor Fred Schebesta. Regulated HK Crypto Exchange OSL Hires Six Senior Staff Two, Joe Zhou and Arion Ho, join OSL from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.   Nornickel Launches Hyperledger-Based Tokens Backed by Nickel and Copper Metal-backed tokens can teach institutional investors about digital assets, Nornickel believes. UK Regulator Finds 2.3M Adults Now Hold Crypto However, overall understanding of crypto is in decline, the FCA survey revealed.   BitMEX Hires Former JPMorgan Executive Director as Head of Custody BitMEX said the appointment forms part of the firm's "beyond derivatives" strategy. Wattum to Build Kazakhstan Mining Farm The facility will have a capacity of 16 megawatts. We've launched on Snapchat. On our debut show, "CoinDesk Breaks It Down," we distill the noise around dogecoin, the energy debate and more. Follow for original content, twice weekly. Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. 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