First Mover: Despite 'Death Cross,' Bitcoin HODLers Are Buying Again
  Everything you need to make sense of the crypto markets and beyond By the CoinDesk Markets Team Edited by Lawrence Lewitinn, Managing Editor, Global Capital Markets June 17, 2021 Sponsored by  (Price data as of June 17 @11:00 UTC) If you were forwarded this newsletter and would like to receive it, sign up here.
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Market Moves by Omkar Godbole  Bitcoin Holders Become Net Buyers for First Time Since October as Death Cross Looms Investors with a longer-term horizon look to be boosting their bitcoin (BTC) holdings amid calls for a more profound price drop.
Glassnode data show the bitcoin "hodler net position change", which tracks net buying/selling activity of those holding coins for six months or more, has flipped positive for the first time since late October. Hodl is crypto slang for hold.
"It shows HODLers are buyers here," Delphi Digital said in its daily market commentary dated June 16. "The net positions of BTC HODLers is a strong indicator of how longer-term investors are thinking about BTC."
Supply held by long-term holders has increased from 11 million to more than 11.6 million in the past few weeks, according to Glassnode.  Bitcoin: hodler net position change (Source: Glassnode) While holders are now injecting bullish pressure into the market, that does not necessarily imply a sharp rally. Past data show bullish trends mostly pick up the pace after sustained accumulation by holders.
For example, the indicator remained positive for most of 2018, which was a negative year for bitcoin, and early 2019, when the cryptocurrency remained sidelined below $5,000. Bullish mood returned to the market in the second quarter of that year, pushing the cryptocurrency to $13,880 by the end of June.  Bitcoin: hodler net position change (2018-2020) (Source: Glassnode) Bitcoin scaled that peak in October 2020 – after a gap of 16 months. During that period the cryptocurrency was mainly in a bearish trend, falling from $13,000 to $4,000 between August 2019 and March 2020. Holders were net buyers throughout and during the subsequent recovery, and began distributing coins in November.
It remains to be seen if they will continue to be net buyers over the coming weeks and restore the battered market confidence.
Some chart analysts though are worried that the cryptocurrency could see more selling in the short term, as the daily plot shows the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) are set to produce a death cross (bearish crossover) in the next day or two.  Bitcoin impending death cross (Source: TradingView) According to Kraken's research, the previous instances of death crosses on the daily chart coincided with "either a sell-off in the days that followed or a continued macro downtrend that confirmed a bear market."
Macro funds, which bought bitcoin as a store of value, may sell if U.S. Treasury yields rise further. The U.S. two-year yield reached a 12-month high of 0.219% and the 10-year yield rose nearly 10 basis points to 1.59% on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled an earlier interest rate increase than some had anticipated.
Read the original story here: Bitcoin Holders Become Net Buyers for First Time Since October as Death Cross Looms
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Technician's Take by Damanick Dantes, CMT Bitcoin Holds Short-Term Support; Faces Resistance at $41K Bitcoin (BTC) stabilized around $38,000 support on Wednesday, but upside appears limited towards $41,000. The choppy range over the past few days suggests indecision between buyers and sellers.
A breakout from the trading range would yield an upside target towards the next resistance level around $45,000. However, upside momentum has been weak, which means the corrective phase from May is not yet complete.
Bitcoin was trading around $39,200 at press time and is up 7% over the past seven days.  Bitcoin four-hour price chart shows short-term support and resistance levels with RSI (Source: TradingView)
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ICYMI In case you missed it, here are the most recent episodes of "First Mover" on CoinDesk TV: Crypto Markets Await Fed Rate Decision, Cyber Security in Focus, Bitwise CEO on Raise from Hedge Fund Giants As President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet in Geneva, "First Mover" discusses a top item on the U.S. agenda: the recent ransomware attacks traced to Russia. Also, how will the Federal Reserve respond to the jump in U.S. inflation? Markets are relatively quiet as they await the Fed's news. Joining the show to discuss these and other stories are Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, Darius Sit of QCP Capital and Ian Rogers of Ledger.
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