First Mover: Bitcoin’s Risk-Reward Ratio Suggests Bull Run Has Plenty of Scope to Continue
  Everything you need to make sense of the crypto markets and beyond By the CoinDesk Markets Team - Edited by Lawrence Lewitinn March 23, 2021 Sponsored by  (Price data as of Mar. 23 @11:00 UTC) Good morning. Here's what we're writing about:
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Market Moves by OMKAR GODBOLE  Bitcoin's Risk-Reward Ratio Suggests Bull Run Has Plenty of Scope to Continue Despite seeing its biggest drop for a month in the last 24 hours, bitcoin (BTC)'s bull run is likely to continue.
That's the suggestion of blockchain data showing the cryptocurrency is still an attractive bet for existing holders and prospective buyers.
Bitcoin's "reserve risk" metric measures the risk-reward ratio of investment based on long-term holders' confidence relative to the price at any given point of time, and is currently seen at 0.008. That's well short of highs above 0.02 seen during the bull market frenzies of December 2017, December 2013, and June 2011, according to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode.
The low current level suggests confidence is still high relative to the cryptocurrency's price. Essentially, the risk/reward is skewed attractively even after the cryptocurrency's six-fold rally in the past 5.5 months.
"The incentive for long-term holders to sell is still relatively low when compared to past bull markets," Jeff Rose, founder and CEO of Vailshire Capital Management, tweeted Monday. "This metric suggests the current bull market still has a long way to run in terms of price increases."
The bullish signal is consistent with the positive picture painted by other on-chain indicators, such as the market value relative to realized value ratio.
 Bitcoin's reserve risk (Source: Glassnode) Bitcoin's latest bull market commenced a year ago after the reserve risk fell into the buy zone (green area) below 0.002. Since then, the cryptocurrency has charted an 11-fold rally.
The risk-reward ratio will be deemed unattractive once the indicator hits the red zone above 0.02.
Reserve risk is calculated by dividing bitcoin's price at any point in time by the "HODL Bank," as detailed by Glassnode, which represents the opportunity cost of holding an asset. "Each day a coin is held, the owner defers the ability to exchange it for its cash value," according to Glassnode.
At press time, bitcoin is trading nearly 1.2% higher on the day at $54,738, having defended support at $53,000 earlier in Tuesday, according to CoinDesk 20 data.
"We have seen roughly under $1 billion in liquidations in the past 24 hours; however, the market continues to hold its $53,000 support," Matthew Dibb, COO, and co-founder of Stack Funds, said. "There is an expectation of a deeper pullback to $47,500 if we confidently close below [the $53,000] level.
--Omkar Godbole
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Technician's Take by Damanick Dantes Bitcoin Breaks Below Short-Term Uptrend, Lower Support Around $50K Sellers were active during Asia hours, pushing bitcoin (BTC) below intraday trend support. The broader uptrend continues to slow, with lower support around $50,000 and then $42,000.  Four-hour BTC chart shows a break of uptrend support with lower support levels (Source: Trading View)
--Damanick Dantes
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ICYMI In case you missed it, here's this past Friday's episode of "First Mover" on CoinDesk TV:
Peter Brandt's Case for $180K-$200K Bitcoin Price, Crypto Trust Funds, Anti-Money Laundering Popular chartist Peter Brandt reviews new bitcoin charts to show how high BTC may go and why the current bull cycle since the COVID-19 low last March is extraordinary yet orderly. Also, why Osprey Funds CEO Greg King believes trust funds will morph into ETFs, and Siân Jones of XReg Consulting on regulators clarifying that anti-money laundering applies to all forms of crypto.
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