First Mover: Bitcoin's Put-Call Ratio Hits 9-Month High, But That's Not Necessarily Bearish

PLUS: Bitcoin Battles Resistance Near All-Time-High as Possible 'Double Top' Looms: Technical Analysis

March 12, 2021 Everything you need to make sense of the crypto markets and beyond Sponsored By: By the CoinDesk Markets Team Edited by Lawrence Lewitinn If you were forwarded this newsletter and would like to receive it, sign up here.  Bitcoin (BTC) +0.6%  $56,395 Ether (ETH)  -0.3%   $1,769 (Price data as of Mar. 12  @12:20 UTC) Good morning. Here's what we're writing about: Market Moves by Omkar Godbole: Bitcoin's Put-Call Ratio Hits 9-Month High, But That's Not Necessarily Bearish Technician's Take by Damanick Dantes: Bitcoin Battles Resistance Near All-Time-High as Possible 'Double Top' Looms: Technical Analysis Check out the CoinDesk TV show "First Mover," hosted by Christine Lee, Lawrence Lewitinn and Emily Parker, at 9 a.m. U.S. Eastern time. Today the show will feature guests: Mike "Beeple" Winkelmann, artist who created "Everydays: The First 5,000 Days," which sold for $69.3 million on Thursday Anthony Di Iorio, CEO and founder of Decentral and Jaxx, co-founder of Ethereum Hunter Merghart, head of U.S. at Bitstamp MARKET MOVES by OMKAR GODBOLE Bitcoin's Put-Call Ratio Hits 9-Month High, But That's Not Necessarily Bearish Bitcoin is currently trading near $56,395, having narrowly missed challenging the record high of $58,332 on Thursday, according to CoinDesk's Bitcoin Price Index. The pullback seen today could be associated with the jittery traditional markets. The U.S. 10-year yield has risen back to 1.6%, strengthening the dollar and pushing the European equities lower. Bitcoin prices, Mar. 11 to Mar. 12, 2021 (CoinDesk) Bitcoin's put-call open interest ratio, which measures the number of put options, or bearish bets, open relative to calls, or bullish bets, is rising. However, that does not imply traders are positioning themselves for a drop in the market.   The ratio jumped to 0.91 on Thursday, the highest level since June 26, 2020, according to data provided by the crypto derivatives research firm Skew.  Bitcoin put-call open interest ratio (Source: Skew) The metric has been rising since the beginning of the year. The spike, however, may have been fueled by increased put selling, which is usually done when the market is expected to consolidate or rally.    Bitcoin's one-month implied volatility, or investors' expectations for price turbulence over four weeks, spiked to record levels in early January, boosting options prices and remained elevated above its lifetime average of 100% (annualized) until last week.    Traders, therefore, had a strong incentive to sell put options at high prices during that bull run. Volatility essentially represents uncertainty and has positive impact on options prices. The one-month implied volatility is now hovering below 100%.    Open interest only tells us the number of calls and put contracts that are active, or open, at a given point in time and does not reveal whether investors are buying call/put options or selling (known as "writing" in options markets).    The way the options are currently priced actually suggests bullish bias in the market. One-, three- and six-month put-call skews, which measure the cost of puts relative to calls, are hovering in negative territory, implying greater demand for bullish calls compared to puts.  Indeed, the put-call skews have recovered from the bull market depths seen earlier this year and options market recently saw some put buying. Again that does not imply a bearish mood, as traders often buy put options as a hedge (protection) against bullish or long positioning in the spot or futures.    Lastly, the put-call open interest ratio is closing on parity, which means the market is heading toward neutral positioning. All-in-all, the spike in the put-call open interest ratio shouldn't be a cause for concern for the bulls. However, a continued rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield may play spoilsport.   The yield has risen back to 1.6% today, making the U.S. dollar more attractive as an investment and putting a downward pressure on equities and other competing investments. Bitcoin fell sharply in the last week of February, as yields spiked, triggering risk aversion in traditional markets. --Omkar Godbole   Read the original story here: Bitcoin's Put-Call Ratio Hits 9-Month High, But That's Not Necessarily Bearish SPONSORED BY NEXO Your digital assets deserve a savings account in their BEST INTEREST. Leading crypto lender Nexo treats you, your crypto and your fiat to industry-best Crypto & Fiat services, featuring:    * Up to 12% interest on digital assets, paid out daily! * Yields available on BTC, ETH, LTC, BCH, XRP, XLM, EOS, TRX, LINK, BNB, PAXG, USDT, USDC, TUSD, PAX, DAI, HUSD, GBP and EUR. * No minimum or maximum limits on funds deposited, offering infinite opportunities to earn. * #ZeroFees on all transactions. * Military-grade wallet security and top-tier insurance on all custodial assets with SOC 2 Type 2 certified crypto custodian BitGo. Get started at nexo.io TECHNICIAN'S TAKE by DAMANICK DANTES Bitcoin (BTC) is holding support above its 50-day volume weighted moving average, but the cryptocurrency faces resistance around $58,000. Upside momentum is slowing, with initial support around $52,000 on the 4-hour chart. 4-hour price chart shows resistance around $58,000 with lower support around the 50-period volume weighted moving average (Source: TradingView) For now, BTC's uptrend remains intact as buyers on March 8 pushed prices above the $50,000 level for the second time since February, and bitcoin (BTC, +0.85%) has moved this week back toward its all-time-high around $58,000. Momentum, defined by the relative strength index (RSI), is slowing on both intraday charts and the daily chart, diverging from BTC's price uptrend. Traders are on watch for a breakout to fresh all-time-highs, but there is concern about a double-top forming, which could lead to profit taking. --Damanick Dantes Original story found here: Bitcoin Battles Resistance Near All-Time-High as Possible 'Double Top' Looms: Technical Analysis BIGGEST MOVERS These are the biggest movers in the CoinDesk 20 over the past 24 hours:   Gainers: Kyber Network (KNC): +10.4% Litecoin (LTC): +6.3% OMG Network (OMG): +4.4%   Losers:  Orchid (OXT): -11.4% Cardano (ADA): -4.8% Tezos (XTZ): -2.9%   The CoinDesk 20 filters from the larger universe of thousands of cryptocurrencies and digital assets to define a core group of 20. These assets constitute roughly 99% of the market by volume at eight of the largest and most trustworthy exchanges. BOLO Be on the lookout for these events today:   16:00 UTC (11:00 a.m. ET): NYDFS Superintendent Linda Lacewell's fireside chat with PayPal CEO Dan Schulman. What to look for: The New York Department of Financial Services chief will be talking to PayPal's Schulman on the final day of the Techsprint on Digital Regulatory Reporting in Cryptocurrency. Registration for the event can be found here: https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_bLOlSJYsSCevs7lKxdACLw ICYMI In case you missed it, here is yesterday's episode of First Mover:   Market Moves and Binance News with Changpeng 'CZ' Zhao Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, CEO of Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, discusses big developments in crypto markets and his latest move into DeFi. U.S. Representative Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) on his and other lawmakers' proposals for clearer crypto regulations. Plus the latest from Singapore-based Diginex after going public with a crypto exchange in the U.S. SPONSORED BY SUN EXCHANGE Earn Bitcoin and make a positive impact with Sun Exchange. On the Sun Exchange platform, you can easily buy solar cells that power sunny emerging markets and earn a 20-year passive income stream, paid in Bitcoin, from the clean electricity you generate.   Get started today! Get a free solar cell with your first purchase when you use this link. LATEST HEADLINES   Argo Blockchain Takes 25% Stake in $40M Crypto VC Fund The publicly listed bitcoin mining firm is investing $10 million in Pluto Digital Assets' new fund. Romanian Barber Arrested for Allegedly Stealing $620K in Crypto The man is accused of hacking "the seventh largest cryptocurrency operator in the world."   Binance Adds Merchant Features to Early Version of Payments Platform Binance Pay now includes merchant functions, allowing businesses to process payments in crypto, online or in-person.     Ripple Execs Ask Court to Block SEC Requests for Personal Financial Records Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen are calling the SEC's subpoenas to banks "wholly inappropriate overreach" and an invasion of privacy.     SBI Is Offering Shareholders the Option of Getting XRP as a Reward for 2nd Year The Japan-based financial services company 's support of XRP is sign of the digital token's continued strong fan base in the country.     NFT Art Craze Spreads to China The exhibition titled "Virtual Niche—Have you ever seen memes in the mirror?" will run from March 26 until April 4 in Beijing before moving on to Shanghai.     Grayscale's ETF Push Highlights Existential Threat to GBTC Dominance Grayscale's competitive moat is shrinking as rival offerings attract investor money, amid speculation the SEC might be moving to approve a bitcoin ETF. Australia's Government Allocates AU$6.9 Million for Blockchain Pilot Projects The money will be spent on two pilot projects intended the cost reductions in regulatory compliance possible with the use of blockchain.   Introducing Coin Toss, debating the future of money on CoinDesk TV   From the world leader in crypto news and events, the all-new CoinDesk TV covers the rapidly evolving world of digital finance and its role in the global economy.   Hosted by CoinDesk Podcasts Managing Editor Adam B. Levine, Coin Toss sets the stage for debate between guests with opposing views on policy and regulation, privacy and data integrity, fraud and crime and more.   Watch Coin Toss Wednesdays at 10:30 a.m. ET on YouTube or CoinDesk.com. Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.  ATTENTION: Scammers have been sending fraudulent emails with links to sites disguised to look like coindesk.com. If you are in doubt about a link, type https://www.coindesk.com directly into your browser; do not copy and paste. Remember, if something seems too good to be true, it probably is. First Mover   A newsletter from CoinDesk   See Previous Editions Copyright © 2021 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.    250 Park Avenue South New York, NY 10003, USA You can manage your preferences here or unsubscribe from all CoinDesk email.