First Mover: Bitcoin Options Traders Position for Gains (to $80K?) in Historically Bullish April

PLUS: Bitcoin Stabilizes After Selloff, Resistance Seen Around $56K

Everything you need to make sense of the crypto markets and beyond By the CoinDesk Markets Team - Edited by Lawrence Lewitinn March 25, 2021 Sponsored by     Bitcoin (BTC) -6.1%  $52,958 Ether (ETH)  -5.7%   $1,618 (Price data as of Mar. 25 @11:00 UTC) Good morning. Here's what we're writing about: Market Moves by Omkar Godbole: Bitcoin Options Traders Position for Gains (to $80K?) in Historically Bullish April Technician's Take by Damanick Dantes: Bitcoin Stabilizes After Selloff, Resistance Seen Around $56K Check out the CoinDesk TV show "First Mover," hosted by Christine Lee, Lawrence Lewitinn and Emily Parker, at 9 a.m. U.S. Eastern time. Today the show will feature guests: Alex Adelman, co-founder and CEO of Lolli Mark Steber, SVP and chief tax officer at Jackson Hewitt Edward Woodford, co-founder of Zero Hash and Seed CX   If you were forwarded this newsletter and would like to receive it, sign up here.  Market Moves by OMKAR GODBOLE Bitcoin Options Traders Position for Gains (to $80K?) in Historically Bullish April   Some bitcoin (BTC) options traders are betting that this year's price rally, which paused in recent weeks, will resume in April – historically a strong month for the market.   Among options listed on the dominant Deribit exchange with an April 30 expiry, the most common open position is the $80,000 call, data shared by the options analytics platform Laevitas shows. Deribit is the world's largest crypto options exchange by trading volumes and open interest.   That's a sign of high price expectations for April, as noted on Twitter by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode founders Jan Happel and Jann Allemann. Bitcoin is currently changing hands around $53,000, up 83% on the year. But the market has stagnated since reaching an all-time high above $61,000 on March 13.   As highlighted by CoinDesk on Wednesday, the near-term focus in the bitcoin options market is on this Friday's March expiry, where a record $6 billion of contracts are set to come due, with some analysts warning of an extreme pullback to what's known as the "max pain" point, seen at $44,000.   But if that expiry comes and goes without any major price fluctuations, the bullish bets for April would come into view.   A call option gives the purchaser the right but not the obligation to buy the underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date. Essentially, it's a bullish bet on the underlying asset. The total open interest in the $80,000 call option is 4,469 contracts, or 240 million at press time. The option is currently drawing a premium of 0.0160 BTC on Deribit – a relatively cheap rate that reflects just how far out of the money the $80,000 strike price is.   Bitcoin options open interest, April 30 expiry (Source: Laevitas, Deribit) Theoretically, the $80,000 call represents a bet that bitcoin would settle above that level on April 30. That doesn't necessarily mean buyers of the $80,000 call option are anticipating a rally above that level by the end of April.   Traders often purchase deep out-of-the-money calls even when expecting a moderate bull run, because they can gain significant value as prices rise, yielding handsome returns on a small investment.   Bitcoin's monthly returns since 2010 (Source: Coin Metrics, CoinDesk)   Statistically speaking, the seasonality for April is biased bullish.   Historical data shows bitcoin has chalked out gains in April in eight out of the last ten years.     --Omkar Godbole   Read the original story here: Bitcoin Options Traders Position for Gains (to $80K?) in Historically Bullish April A message from Nexo Your digital assets deserve a savings account in their BEST INTEREST. 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Bitcoin is now oversold on the four-hour chart, which could support a slight recovery towards $56,000.     Four-hour BTC chart shows oversold RSI with support and resistance levels (Source: Trading View) The last oversold reading on the relative strength index (RSI) resulted in a near 7% rise in BTC on March 22. However, the move was short-lived as sellers were active around the $56,000 resistance level. Bitcoin is now roughly 10% below its break of trend support on the four-hour chart and has erased about 50% of its rally from the February 28 price low. For now, bitcoin continues to hold long-term trend support above $50,000, with lower support around $42,000. --Damanick Dantes Original story found here: Bitcoin Stabilizes After Selloff, Resistance Seen Around $56K BOLO Be on the look out for these upcoming events: 12:30 UTC (8:30 a.m. EDT):  U.S. initial jobless claims. Forecast: 735,000 U.S. GDP 2020 Q4. Forecast: 4.1% (s.a.a.r.) 14:10 UTC (10:10 a.m. EDT): Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida speaks at the Institute of International Finance Washington Policy Summit on U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy.  Biggest Movers These are the biggest movers in the CoinDesk 20 over the past 24 hours:   Gainers:   None of the assets in the CoinDesk 20 is up in the past 24 hours   Losers:  Kyber Network (KNC): -14.0% Orchid (OXT): -12.0% OMG Network (OMG): -12.0%   The CoinDesk 20 filters from the larger universe of thousands of cryptocurrencies and digital assets to define a core group of 20. These assets constitute roughly 99% of the market by volume at eight of the largest and most trustworthy exchanges. ICYMI In case you missed it, here's this past Friday's episode of "First Mover" on CoinDesk TV:   Musk: Buy Tesla With Bitcoin; Powell-Yellen Hearings Continue Elon Musk announces acceptance of BTC for Teslas. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen prepare for a second day of congressional hearings. Leaders of three different types of major crypto exchanges join "First Mover" with markets analysis and their news. Discussions with Antonio Juliano of decentralized exchange dYdX and Pankaj Balani of Delta, a derivatives exchange. A message from NEM GROUP     Symbol from NEM, the next-generation public blockchain, launched March 15th, marking a milestone in NEM's vision for a new economic and digital system. Boasting enterprise-grade security and programmability, Symbol smooths business friction and increases the flow of data  to supercharge the creation, exchange and protection of assets. NEM Group - comprising NEM Software, NEM Trading, and NEM Ventures - nurtures a strong and healthy ecosystem to shape the development and future of blockchain technology for generations to come. Latest Headlines Fidelity-Affiliated Fund Files for Bitcoin ETF Peter Jubber, the managing director of Fidelity Digital Funds, serves as president of the trust.     Goldman Files to Offer Notes Linked to an ARK ETF That May Have Bitcoin Exposure Payout on the notes would be dependent on the performance of the ARK Innovation ETF, an actively managed fund offered by Cathie Wood's ARK Investment Management.     IBM Ventures Further Into Crypto Custody With METACO, Deutsche Bank Tie-Ups Big Blue wading deeper into these waters speaks to a broader change in the posture of corporates toward public blockchains.     RBI Is Assessing Digital Rupee's Impact on Financial Stability, Says Governor Shaktikanta Das The RBI is examining the impact of the digital rupee on the financial stability in the economy.     Cboe Eyes More Crypto Offerings as Demand Rises: Report CEO Ed Tilly told Bloomberg Thursday that Cboe has not "given up" on bitcoin futures despite prior aborted attempts in the space. A message from CoinDesk.tv Introducing Community Crypto, an intimate look at digital transformation   From the world leader in crypto news and events, the all-new CoinDesk TV covers the rapidly evolving world of digital finance and its role in the global economy. On Community Crypto, "Bitcoin and Black America" author Isaiah Jackson explores how crypto is creating and impacting communities. Jackson will organize virtual meetups in the U.S. and around the world, then dive deeper into key themes, issues or questions that arise.   Watch Community Crypto Thursdays at 5 p.m. ET on YouTube or CoinDesk.com. Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. 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