Bitcoin's Next Move Could Depend on Today's US Jobs Number

PLUS: Next stop, $30K?

Everything you need to make sense of the crypto markets and beyond By the CoinDesk Markets Team Edited by Lawrence Lewitinn, Managing Editor, Global Capital Markets July 2, 2021 Sponsored by     Bitcoin (BTC) -0.6%  $32,999 Ether (ETH)  -3.4%  $2,039 (Price data as of July 2 @11:00 UTC) If you were forwarded this newsletter and would like to receive it, sign up here.  Good morning, and welcome to First Mover. Here's what's happening this morning: Market Moves: Bitcoin Remains Depressed as Dollar Rallies Ahead of U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Bitcoin's fortunes appear closely tied to Federal Reserve's money printing.   Technician's Take: Bitcoin Declines Within Range; Could Find Support at $30K Bitcoin buyers are in profit-taking mode given strong overhead resistance. And check out the CoinDesk TV show "First Mover," hosted by Christine Lee, Emily Parker and me at 9:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern time. Today the show will feature guests: Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH) Rayne Steinberg, Arca CEO  – Lawrence Lewitinn Biggest Movers These are the biggest movers in the CoinDesk 20 over the past 24 hours:   Gainers: NuCypher (NU): +0.9%   Losers: Aave (AAVE): -6.3% Tezos (XTZ): -4.6% Yearn Finance (YFI): -4.1%   The CoinDesk 20 are 20 digital assets filtered from the larger universe of thousands of cryptocurrencies and constitute roughly 99% of the market by volume at eight of the largest and most trustworthy exchanges. Market Moves by Omkar Godbole Bitcoin Remains Depressed as Dollar Rallies Ahead of U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Bitcoin is trading under pressure as currency markets price in prospects of an upbeat U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls release, which could amplify concerns of an early unwinding of stimulus by the Federal Reserve.   The leading cryptocurrency is changing hands near $33,000 at press time – down 1% on the day – having faced rejection above $36,000 earlier this week. The retreat has poured cold water over the optimism generated by the last week's rebound from $28,800 to $35,000.   The dollar index, which tracks the greenback's value against major currencies, clocked a three-month high of 92.60 shortly before press time. BTC and DXY over the past three months (source: TradingView) The index has been rising ever since June 16, when the Fed unexpectedly brought forward the timing of the first interest-rate hike to 2023 and has rallied 100 pips this week alone, TradingView data show.   According to the London-based FX and spread-betting provider City Index, the DXY's recent rise hints at a strong payrolls figure.   The payrolls data scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC on Friday is expected to show the U.S. economy added 700,000 jobs in June, up from 559,000 in May. The unemployment rate is seen falling to 5.7% from 5.8%, while wage growth may have decelerated, according to FXStreet.   A higher-than-expected number would validate the Fed's recent hawkish turn, possibly bringing more pain for bitcoin (BTC) and other asset prices in general.   Fed tightening, that is, higher interest rates or unwinding of liquidity-boosting asset purchases, makes the dollar more attractive and dilutes the appeal of inflation hedges like gold and bitcoin. As such, fears of Fed taper or gradual unwinding of stimulus tend to weigh on bitcoin and other risk assets. Equally, the cryptocurrency could pick up a strong bid if the payrolls data falls short of estimates by a big margin, squashing Fed taper fears.   For example, bitcoin fell sharply to $30,000 in May after the U.S. reported a big rise in inflation, forcing investors to consider the possibility of the central bank closing the liquidity tap sooner than expected.   Before that, the cryptocurrency was on a solid upward trajectory, rallying from $10,000 to over $60,000 in seven months to April, mainly on the back of the central bank stimulus. The Fed began pumping unprecedented amounts of liquidity into the system in March 2020 to help the economy and markets absorb the shocks arising from the coronavirus pandemic.   The price action observed over the past 12 months tells us that bitcoin's fortunes are closely tied to the central bank's money printing.   Crypto market indicators are painting a mixed picture ahead of the event. While the sliding put-call open interest ratio is giving bullish hints, the low active user participation on the blockchain is signaling weak demand.     Read the original story here: Bitcoin Remains Depressed as Dollar Rallies Ahead of U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls A message from Nexo Your digital assets deserve a savings account in their BEST INTEREST. Leading crypto lender Nexo treats you, your crypto and your fiat to industry-best Crypto & Fiat services, featuring:    * Up to 12% interest on digital assets, paid out daily! * Yields available on BTC, ETH, LTC, BCH, XRP, XLM, EOS, TRX, LINK, BNB, PAXG, USDT, USDC, TUSD, PAX, DAI, HUSD, GBP and EUR. * No minimum or maximum limits on funds deposited, offering infinite opportunities to earn. * #ZeroFees on all transactions. * Military-grade wallet security and top-tier insurance on all custodial assets with SOC 2 Type 2 certified crypto custodian BitGo. Get started at nexo.io Technician's Take by Damanick Dantes, CMT Bitcoin Declines Within Range; Could Find Support at $30K Bitcoin (BTC) selling continued during Asia hours as buyers failed to hold initial support at $34,000. Lower support is seen at $30,000 which could stabilize the current sell-off.   The downtrend since April has limited price recoveries and kept bitcoin in a tight range between $30,000 and $40,000 over the past month. However, momentum signals suggest selling pressure has weakened since the May correction which could keep buyers active at support.   Bitcoin was trading around $32,000 at press time and is up about 4% over the past week. Bitcoin daily price chart shows support and resistance levels with RSI (Source: TradingView) The relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart registered a series of higher lows since May 19. This indicates a bullish divergence which could stabilize the intermediate term downtrend in price. Typically, a bullish divergence precedes a price bounce. It's possible that bitcoin's 20% price rise from the June 22 shakeout low around $29,000 completed the divergence signal. Bitcoin will need to break above the 50-day moving average around $37,000 to encourage further upside beyond $40,000. For now, buyers continue to take profits given strong overhead resistance on the chart. Read the original story here: Bitcoin Declines Within Range; Could Find Support at $30K A message from Oasis Foundation   Get up to $50K to build your Oasis DApp Build a scalable, private DApp with Oasis, the leading privacy-first Blockchain, with built-in features to support confidential smart contracts. Check out the $1.5M USD Oasis Grants Program and get up to  $50K USD in ROSE token to build your project. APPLY NOW BOLO Be on the look out for some of these upcoming events:     12:30 UTC (8:30 a.m. ET): Nonfarm payrolls (June). Est: 706,000 Unemployment rate (June). Est: 5.6% Avg. hourly earnings (June). Est: +0.3% (+3.6% y/y) Trade deficit (May). Est: ($71.4 million) The cryptocurrency movement has never been so sprawling, reaching every corner of the planet. Crypto State by CoinDesk aims to connect with local communities to explore this movement of financial disruption and how it trickles down to every corner of the globe, from DeFi investment opportunities to alternative ways to transact and store wealth. We're making virtual stops with audiences in Nigeria, the Middle East and Southeast Asia this year. Register for the Crypto State virtual tour. ICYMI In case you missed it, here are the most recent episodes of "First Mover" on CoinDesk TV:   Bitcoin, Ether Analysis, Japanese Industry Leader on 'Stupid' Regulator Warnings Against Binance, State of Crypto in Japan "First Mover" dives into crypto markets and business news, including Ethereum's upcoming upgrade. Is it bullish or bearish for ETH? Joining the show to discuss the crypto markets is Darius Sit of QCP Capital. Also, Oki Matsumoto, CEO of Japanese financial conglomerate Monex Group, discusses crypto markets in Japan and the recent regulatory warnings against Binance he suggests were unnecessary. EIP 1559: Ethereum's Fee Market Upgrade Explained CoinDesk Research's newest report dives into the economic impacts and investment implications of Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 1559. At its core, the code change is designed to make transaction fees on Ethereum less volatile and more predictable.  At the same time, EIP 1559 also poses several risks to Ethereum including risks of miner capitulation or revolt, technological risk in the form of unexpected bugs, and risk of user disappointment. In this report, CoinDesk Research gives an overview of how EIP 1559 works and its intended impact for investors, miners and users. Download the full report today. Latest Headlines Fake Covid Certificates, Stolen Vaccines Sold on Darkweb for Bitcoin Dark web vendors have been selling the certificates and vaccines for a range of cryptos including bitcoin and ether. E-Sports Organization FaZe Clan Drops 1 Member, Suspends 3 Following Alleged Crypto Scam Frazier "Kay" Khattri has gotten the boot while Jarvis Khattri, Nikan Nadim and Jakob Teeqo have been suspended until further notice. Singapore's Financial Watchdog to 'Follow Up' on Global Binance Concerns The regulator is expected to follow up with the company's local subsidiary Binance Asia Services Pte. following global developments. Bitcoin Mining Council Says Sustainable Power Mix on the Rise The council's survey focused on the crypto mining industry's electricity consumption and sustainable power mix. Binance Not Authorized to Operate in the Cayman Islands, Says Regulator The Cayman Islands' financial watchdog said Binance has not registered to operate in the nation and that it was investigating the matter. BIS Rules Out Distrust in Mainstream Finance as Crypto Driver People with more security concerns around fiat money may seek information around crypto, but ultimately decide not to invest. Thailand SEC Files Criminal Complaint Against Binance The SEC alleges the crypto exchange is operating a digital-asset business in the country without a license. Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.  ATTENTION: Scammers have been sending fraudulent emails with links to sites disguised to look like coindesk.com. If you are in doubt about a link, type https://www.coindesk.com directly into your browser; do not copy and paste. Remember, if something seems too good to be true, it probably is. First Mover   A newsletter from CoinDesk Copyright © 2021 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.    250 Park Avenue South New York, NY 10003, USA You can manage your preferences here or unsubscribe from all CoinDesk email.