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Lagging Indicator Turns Bearish
BTC: Price: $10,360 | MCAP: $185.44 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $18.73 billion
Short-term trend: Bearish
Bitcoin's weekly moving average convergence divergence histogram, a lagging trend-following indicator, which trapped sellers on the wrong side with bearish crossovers during the 2015-2017 bull run, has turned bearish for the first time since February.
However, it is too early to call bull revival as prices are yet to find acceptance above $12,000. Bitcoin has failed at least four times in the last nine weeks to end the week (Sunday, UTC) above $12,000, stalling the rally from lows near $4,050 seen on April 1.
Also, short duration charts continue to call a drop to the recent low of $9.467. The bearish case would weaken if prices rise above the lower high of $10,956 created on Aug. 20.
Long-term trend: Bullish
Bitcoin snapped its five-month winning streak with moderate losses in July. More importantly, the cryptocurrency created an inside bar candle, a sign of consolidation or exhaustion following a stellar rally from April's low near $4,050.
Even so, the path of least resistance remains to the higher side as the bullish structure on the monthly chart is intact.
For instance, the falling channel breakout confirmed in April is still valid. The 5- and 10-month moving averages continue to trend north, indicating a bullish setup. Further, on the 3-day chart, the 50- and 200-candle moving averages (MAs) have produced a golden crossover, the first since Feb. 3, 2016.
However, a deeper correction to $7,500 cannot be ruled out, if prices drop below $9,049, validating the inside bar pattern.
That said, the long-term bullish outlook would be invalidated only if prices print a UTC close below the 200-day MA, currently at $6,417.
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Tomochain Benefits From DEX Listing
TOMO: Price: $0.73 | MCAP: $47.2 million | 24-Hr Volume: $23.9 million
Short-term trend: Bull exhaustion
For the second month of the Binance BEP2 community listing program, TOMO was selected amongst a pool of 11 other candidates to be listed on Binance's Decentralized Exchange (DEX).
As a result, the increased exposure to a larger share of market participants is driving up its price, however, that may be short-lived as volume is currently falling period to period on the hourly chart.
Plan for bull exhaustion and a pullback in its price to the prior resistance zone at around $0.69 should volume for the bulls continue to fall.
Long-term trend: Neutral
Since being listed on DEX on August 25, its price discovery has been plagued by a series of large drawdowns in its price followed by new highs and higher lows. While this would suggest a bullish market structure in the short-term, data is still relatively fresh as a result of only being listed 2 days ago, so a degree of caution is warranted as a large drop in its price amid a high volume sell-off could develop.
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RavenCoin With Clipped Wings
RVN: Price: $0.036 | MCAP: $155.2 million | 24-Hr Volume: $59.8 million
Short-term trend: Neutral
Today's current candle reveals the extent the bears went to driving RVN's price lower before buyers brought its price back toward its opening price, signaling indecision on the day.
A bounce from the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement ($0.034) shows bull potential should tomorrow's candle open higher than today's close.
The view is supported by the fact that total bear volume has been dropping day to day alongside price, flagging a bullish volume analysis.
The awesome oscillator is also signaling further upside based on its green histogram bars moving toward neutral 0. A firm close below $0.035 (prior wick low) would negate the bullish potential outlook.
Long-term trend: Bear biased
The long-term trend remains bearish below the 200-day moving average at $0.045 with three attempts to break beyond that point having failed.
Look for a bullish correction in the short-term and asses whether or not a rally has enough momentum to challenge the downward trend before expecting any large bullish reversal.
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Litecoin's hash rate or computing power has dropped sharply since the mining reward halving, which took place on Aug. 5.
The hashrate, which stood at 458.3312 ahead of reward halving, fell to 309.7101 Th/s on Aug. 23 and currently stands at at 333.647 TH/s, according to bitinfocharts.com.
The sharp slide in the mining power could be associated with the reduced mining profitability.
On Aug. 5, the reward for mining on litecoin's blockchain fell by 50 percent to 12.5 coins per block mined.
Reward halving (supply cut), however, failed to put a bid under the cryptocurrency and prices slipped from $100 on Aug. 5 to $70 on Aug. 21. As of writing, LTC is changing hands at $74 on Coinbase.
The combination of drop in block rewards and the slide in litecoin's price has left mining equipment with a significantly decreased profitability, as discussed by CoinDesk last week.
So, it is hardly surprising to see that miners are moving off litecoin's blockchain, leading to a drop in the hashrate.
It is worth noting that the hashrate had dropped by 15 percent around the previous halving conducted on Aug. 25, 2015, before rebounding in the next two weeks, according to Binance Research. |
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| Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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