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Bakkt Rally Could Be Short-lived
BTC: Price: $10,700 | MCAP: $191.18 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $14.87 billion
Short-term trend: Neutral
Bitcoin has risen by $1,000 since Friday’s announcement by Bakkt exchange that it will be launching physically-settled bitcoin futures on Sept. 23.
The price rise has neutralized the bearish setup on the intraday charts and has opened the doors to $11,000.
However, the rise to that psychological hurdle, if any, could be transient as the weekly chart is reporting a bearish candlestick pattern and the first bearish crossover of the 5- and 10-week MAs since April.
Key indicators on the weekly chart are also biased bearish. Put simply, the case for a drop to $9,000 is still intact.
A weekly close (Sunday, UTC) above $12,000 is needed to revive the bullish setup.
Long-term trend: Bullish
Bitcoin snapped its five-month winning streak with moderate losses in July. More importantly, the cryptocurrency created an inside bar candle, a sign of consolidation or exhaustion following a stellar rally from April's low near $4,050.
Even so, the path of least resistance remains to the higher side as the bullish structure on the monthly chart is intact.
For instance, the falling channel breakout confirmed in April is still valid. The 5- and 10-month moving averages continue to trend north, indicating a bullish setup. Further, on the 3-day chart, the 50- and 200-candle moving averages (MAs) have produced a golden crossover, the first since Feb. 3, 2016.
However, a deeper correction to $7,500 cannot be ruled out, if prices drop below $9,049, validating the inside bar pattern.
That said, the long-term bullish outlook would be invalidated only if prices print a UTC close below the 200-day MA, currently at $6,417.
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Golem Is Precious Right Now
GNT: Price: $0.0538 | MCAP: $52.3 million | 24-Hr Volume: $2.54 million
Short-term trend: Neutral
Despite being one of today's best performing crypto in the top 100 at CoinMarketCap and trapped within a bullish ascending triangle formation, GNT currently lacks bull momentum to push higher. Up 7.97 percent on the day, GNT is at risk of conceding recent gains to the bears on the back of falling volume with a rising price (a bearish volume analysis).
That bias is backed by a bearish RSI below 50 and no clear buy signal from a move above 0 on the awesome oscillator (as of yet).
Long-term trend: Bearish
The overall long-term trend remains bearishly bid until a firm close above $0.06 has occurred.
Further, GNT has struggled to entice a break from its lower high lower low market structure since it first began a downtrend in early July capping any gains by the bulls as pressure continually mounts against them.
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| Lisk At Risk
LSK: Price: $1.24 | MCAP: $154.6 million | 24-Hr Volume: $4.6 million
Short-term trend: Neutral
A rejection on August 17 from a failed falling channel breakout has been met by neutral sideways momentum as it resides above the pattern amid low levels of total daily volume.
The RSI is trending bearish below 50 but may tick up in the coming days as the awesome oscillator shows potential to move above the neutral 0 line, triggering a bull signal.
Long-term trend: Bearish
Lower highs and lower lows continue to plague LSK's market structure as it continues it bearish path down. A reversal to the long-term bearish down trend is possible, but only if a firm close above $1.83 occurs.
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CoinDesk reported in the U.S. trading hours on Friday that the Intercontinental Exchange’s young subsidiary Bakkt has received regulatory approval to launch its much-anticipated platform for daily and monthly BTC futures.
Since then, the price of a single bitcoin has risen by $1,000 to $10,700, a sign the crypto market community has taken heart from Bakkt's announcement.
BTC futures trading on Bakkt will not rely upon unregulated spot markets for settlement prices and the party will receive delivery of bitcoins from the Bakkt Digital Asset Warehouse at the end of the contract period.
Physically delivered futures require the actual purchase of bitcoins, which is huge positive development, according to some observers.
Further, there is general consensus that the price discovery in new physical delivery markets will contribute to building confidence in BTC prices.
All this is seen boosting confidence in bitcoin prices and cryptocurrencies in general.
Hence, many observers, including @hodlonaut, are expecting the new physically-delivered futures product to do what the cash-settled CME futures launched in December 2017 failed to do, that is, bring in the institutional money.
However, increased insititutional inflow (trading volume) may not necessarily translate into stronger buying pressure. “Volume is volume, don’t express your bias toward it”, popular Cryptocurrency market analyst @CryptoNekoZ tweeted earlier today.
Also, it is worth noting that Bakkt futures will be launched at least 8 months before bitcoin undergoes mining reward halving – a process aimed at curbing inflation by reducing reward for mining on bitcoin's blockchain by 50%.
It will be interesting to see if institutions put a bid under BTC via Bakkt futures in the run up to the reward halving due sometime in May 2020.
Historical data shows the cryptocurrency bottoms out and rallies sharply at least a year ahead of the reward halving. BTC bottomed near $3,100 in December 2018 and rose to a high of $13,880 in June this year. So, reward halving may have been priced in. |
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| Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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