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Bitcoin Eyes Range Breakout
BTC: Price: $10,160 | MCAP: $183.67 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $13.09 billion
Short-term trend: Neutral-to-bullish
Bitcoin's daily chart shows triple inside bar candlestick pattern, as the cryptocurrency has charted lower highs and higher lows in the last three days. The first inside bar was created on Friday as that day’s high and low fell within Thursday’s trading range. The second and the third inside bar candle was created on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.
Inside bars represent consolidation and a lack of volatility, often ending with an explosive move on either side. A UTC close below the first inside bar’s (Friday) low of $10,154 would imply range breakdown and could yield a stronger sell-off to levels below $9,855 (Sept. 11 low).
A break above Friday’s high of $10,458 would imply range breakout and open the doors to $10,956 (July 20 high).
The two-week average hash rate or computing power reached a record high of 85 exahashes per second (EH/s) around 19:00 UTC on Friday. Further, mining difficulty – a measure of how hard it is to create a block of transactions – also jumped to a new all-time high of nearly 12 trillion.
With the hash rate or miner’s confidence hitting record highs, a range breakout looks likely.
Long-term trend: Neutral
Bitcoin's monthly chart shows a double inside bar pattern – August’s candle falls within July's high and low and July’s candle is engulfed by June's high and low.
Double inside bars indicate indecision and lack of volatility and are considered a sign of bullish exhaustion, if they occur after a notable price rally, which seems to be the case here.
Also, the selling volume witnessed in July was the highest since March 2018. So, the long-run outlook stands neutralized.
A break above the high of the first inside bar ($13,200) is needed to revive the bullish outlook and a move below the low of the first inside bar ($9,049) will confirm a bearish reversal.
Traders can also take a weekly (Sunday, UTC) close or consecutive high-volume daily closes above $12,000 as a sign of bullish continuation. After all, a weekly close above $12,000 has remained elusive the last week of June.
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Quant on a spree
QNT: Price: $7.81 | MCAP: $92.2 million | 24-Hr Volume: $4.3 million
Short-term trend: Bullish
Quant has broken from its oppressive moving average (MA) shackles as it rose yesterday and today in bullish fashion to take out the 100-period MA on the daily chart, rising back above and triggering a buy signal on the daily awesome oscillator (AO).
The short-term trend is nearing bull exhaustion, courtesy of an overbought RSI, but that may be short-lived as volatility settles while total daily volume rises organically alongside the upward moves.
Long-term trend: Bullish potential
Cracking the long-term moving average is but the first hurdle among many for QNT to continue building off the 3-day 43.2 percent move. The bulls must continue to break the downward (lower high, lower low) trend that has plagued the struggling crypto since July 9. But with recent moves seen Sept. 14 through to 16, the direction for the bulls has become a lot clearer, with a need to take out $8.49, or risk losing out on a longer-term rally.
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| MONA's rejection
MONA: Price: $1.25 | MCAP: $87.9 million | 24-Hr Volume: $13.6 million
Short-term trend: Bearish
The short-term trend remains bearish below the long-term moving averages (100 and 200-period MA) and continues to slide after a failed break above $1.38, the 200-period MA on Sept. 14.
Down 6.25 percent on the day, MONA is one of today's worst performing top 100 crypto at CoinMarketCap and has failed a convincing push with weakened momentum as seen on the daily RSI below 50 (48.1).
Only a resounding move above $1.30 over the coming days would be enough to reinvigorate bullish intentions for contention of the short-term trend, otherwise risk further capitulation to lower levels at $1.00
Long-term trend: Cautiously bearish
MONA' rejection from the 200-period moving average demonstrates considerable momentum from sellers. A higher high break is welcome, but will depend largely on a continuation in its price lest it repeat June 21's peak rejection.
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Dan Tapiero is citing $10,700 as the level to beat for the bulls.
That level represents resistance of the trendline connecting from June and July highs. Note that BTC's rally from lows near $4,000 ran out of steam near $13,880 at the end of June.
So, a breakout above the descending trendline would imply an end of the pullback and a resumption of the rally from lows near $4,000. Hence, Tapiero is right in stating that a close above $10,700 could accelerate the bullish move.
That said, trendlines or diagonal lines often trap bulls/bears on wrong side of the market. Seasoned traders, therefore, give more importance to horizontal support/resistance lines drawn from major levels and swing highs and lows.
For instance, BTC's weekly chart shows the bulls have repeatedly failed to secure a close (Sunday, UTC) above $12,000 over the last 11 weeks. Hence, a weekly close above $12,000 would be a more reliable indicator of bullish revival. |
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| Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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